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First Week of Trials

Posted on 10/24/2013

The first week of handicapping NFL games went as well as can be expected, especially with how badly things went for some of the professional handicappers I follow. One handicapper lost all four of his Sunday day bets and decided to place two bets of $55,000 each on the Sunday night game. He won one and lost one. Here is how I did.

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Updated on 03/08/2019



Trying My Hand at Handicapping

Posted on 10/19/2013

It's no secret that I believe math and sports go together. After designing and analyzing my own baseball statistic, I've decided to try handicapping sports games. I'm starting with (American) football because it is hands-down the most popular sport in America and arguably the sport with the most betting action. Depending on the success of this endeavor, I may move on to basketball and/or baseball. Of course this takes a tremendous amount of time, and it's not something I'm jumping into head-first.

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Updated on 03/08/2019



Consistency Index Examples

Posted on 06/26/2013

The Consistency Indices are two baseball statistics I invented a few months ago. I've dedicated a lot of my time and computing time to these statistics. I have calculated both the On-Base Consistency Index (OBCI) and the Hit Consistency Index (HCI) for every batter's career debuting in 1915 or later with at least 2000 plate appearances. I have also calculated the top indices for each year, three-year span, and five-year span since 1915 (with plate appearance restrictions for each). All of this is through the 2012 season. I would like to share some of my thoughts and data.

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Updated on 03/08/2019



Introduction to the Consistency Indices

Posted on 06/22/2013

One hundred sixty-two games is a long season during which a hitter will go through several hot streaks and slumps. As a manager makes a lineup in the "dog days of summer," wouldn't it be nice to know which solid, consistent hitter to keep in the middle of the lineup? A hitter that one could count on to get a hit or get on base nearly every game. There are advanced metrics that attempt to measure many different aspects of a player's game. However, I found a small gap; there is no metric that attempts to measure how consistent a batter is at getting hits or on base. I have developed two statistics that try to measure this. I call them the "On-Base Consistency Index" (OBCI) and the "Hit Consistency Index" (HCI). What follows is the idea behind the indices, where I got the data, and how I processed that data. The next post will contain examples and analysis of specific players, years, and careers.

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Updated on 03/08/2019



How I Created This Blog

Posted on 05/31/2013

When I decided to create a blog to log my thoughts and ideas, I didn't want to use any of the existing blogging platforms. For one, most of the existing (free) blogging sites require you to have a subdomain of their domain (i.e. thedadams.blogspot.com). Tumblr was the only one I found that did not require this, but I will stay away from it now that it has been purchased by Yahoo. For another, these sites only give you a fixed number of free themes to work with, and instead of taking the time to write my own theme, I can simply use the CSS files I already have for my website. This all led me to create this blog from scratch. I would like to take this time to describe how I did that.

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Updated on 03/08/2019



First Blog Post

Posted on 05/25/2013

Hello to you. My name is Donald Adams and I would like to welcome you to my blog. One day, while reading one of my favorite iPhone/iPad blog, I ran across an article written about Don Melton. He is best known for heading the Safari project at Apple. He is retired now, but has chosen to share his thoughts and some of his experiences on his blog. An interesting thing about Mr. Melton is he was not a "tech nerd" as a youngester. He was actually once in seminary; you might not believe it if you listened to him on iMore's Debug podcast. The point is he got a late start in computer programming and has inspired me to pursue it myself. My first project was to code this blog. My next post will describe how I did that. For now, I would like to share little bit about myself.

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Updated on 03/08/2019



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