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New Year Resolutions

Posted on 12/26/2014

I've never done any New Year Resolutions. I think the reason is I hear people talk a lot about how they don't keep them; I didn't want to be a failure. However, this is the year I will make (and keep) a few New Year Resolutions.

First, I want to make use of this blog. I have quite a few half-written blog posts in Editorial, many of which will never be posted here. I want this to change. I feel like I have a few unique perspectives that people may find interesting. At the very least putting things down in writing may help to solidify my thoughts and ideas on the topics. I also put quite a bit of effort into creating this blog from scratch as well as automating the posting process on my iPad and iPhone using Editorial, Workflow, and Launch Center Pro. That shouldn't go to waste.

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Updated on 04/02/2021

Minimal Watchface for Pebble

Posted on 06/19/2014

A few months ago I was inspired to make a watchface for the Pebble Smartwatch. I wanted to combine an analog design with a digital one to create a very simple, uncluttered watchface. I have very little design experience and limited programming experience, but I thought that the task could be obtained with a little effort. After looking over the Pebble API documentation, I decided to tackle the project. I have released a few upgrades since originally publishing the face on the Pebble app store; I am particularly proud of the most recent version.

In an effort to make the design simple, I chose not to adopt the usual marking of the numbers around an analog watch. I also wanted the watch to be easily readable. Therefore, a minute hand was immediately out of the question, which left just an hour hand. The hour hand doesn't move throughout a given hour. Instead, it jumps to the next position when the hour changes. This makes reading the hour quick and easy.

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Updated on 04/02/2021

Consistency Indicies Updated for 2013

Posted on 06/15/2014

Another MLB year came to a close and I now have the data I need to update the Consistency Indices. Last year was especially interesting because there is a great hitter in his prime and another young hitter that has the opportunity to be the best player in baseball, if he is not already. I would like to give some perspective on the consistency of the current players and how this 2013 ranks in history.

As you may recall, there are two Consistency Indices: one for hits and one for on-base. For the Hit Consistency Index (HCI), there is no surprise who is number one: Miguel Cabrera with an HCI of 3.928758. Cabrera had an excellent season, leading the MLB in batting average (.348) and on-base percentage (.442), despite battling a couple different injuries toward the end. The number two spot belongs to Michael Cuddyer with an HCI of 3.92468. Cuddyer was second in the league in batting average (.331). These aren't surprising because they are number one and two in batting average. The HCI tends to following batting average for single seasons. Here are the top ten HCI's for 2013:

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Updated on 04/02/2021

Giving Up Sports Betting For Now

Posted on 12/19/2013

The time has come; I have to stop pursuing sports betting, but only temporarily. I did have success. I actually found a strategy that allowed me to win over 70% of the spread bets I made. However, due to the lack of freely available statistics, it took me too long to compile the information each week. If the information was programmatically easy to come by, I could continue this endeavor.

The information I need for basketball over/unders is "freely" available. That is, I can get the statistics I need everyday without having to sit down and do it myself. I wrote a few scripts and added a couple launchd plists to get the information I need. The relevant statistics are then sent to my phone via PushOver. I can look at the match-ups at my leisure wherever I am. I won't be publishing my results until I have more time to devote to the decision making process.

This was fun, and by no means am I done with sports betting. If you do not know, I am a graduate student studying mathematics. That is where I need to put my undivided attention at this time. Once my dissertation is finished and I figure out what I want to do with my life (Hint: it won't be sports betting), I will pick it back up recreationally.

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Updated on 04/02/2021

Things Keep Changing

Posted on 11/12/2013

It seems that each week I find a betting strategy that might work going forward, and that week is a bad for that idea. This week is no different. I thought I found a way to narrow down which games to bet on, but I was wrong. I decided to do what I think was inevitable all along: mold trends and statistics.

I will ignore the tables I have been giving in the past and jump straight the the ideas I have. For spread betting, I noticed that my strategies worked very well when the home team was the underdog. I contribute this to the fact that bad teams play better at home, and teams that travel long distances (west coast team traveling to the east) tends to perform below their average. I don't always bet on the home team when they are an underdog, but it seems that my strategy balances well with Vegas' (and the public's) perception of these teams.

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Updated on 04/02/2021

Good News and Bad News

Posted on 11/06/2013

As I computed numbers for this weeks' games, I knew it was going to be an interesting week. To start, there was only one game between teams that entered with winning records. In that game, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL left that game with a potential broken clavicle. There were also coaches collapsing and two 21-point comebacks. There is some good news that came out of the week and I can't wait to share.

Even just looking at the numbers, I wasn't happy. I remember sending a text to someone saying, "If these numbers stay above 56%, I will start betting them next week." Let's just say I'm not making any bets this week. One positive thing is (this isn't the foreshadowed good news) I saw it coming. This means my eye can see when things are questionable which is a huge step forward for me personally. That's not why you're reading this; you care about the strategies and the numbers:

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Updated on 04/02/2021

Week Two Trials Went Really Well

Posted on 10/29/2013

The second week of testing my strategies has made me a little worried. It went well - really well. Call me a pessimist, but the overwhelming success this week has make me question the validity of my strategies. The success may continue, however it is more likely that the strategies have an epic flaw that got lucky this week. This is why we test these things.

I won't waste any time; here are the winning percentages for each strategy:

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Updated on 04/02/2021

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