Week Two Trials Went Really Well
Posted on 10/29/2013
The second week of testing my strategies has made me a little worried. It went well - really well. Call me a pessimist, but the overwhelming success this week has make me question the validity of my strategies. The success may continue, however it is more likely that the strategies have an epic flaw that got lucky this week. This is why we test these things.
I won't waste any time; here are the winning percentages for each strategy:
I will continue to point out the flaw in the system; it requires one to bet on essentially every game. This is not ideal and I had an idea to fix this last week. However, that idea has proven extremely ineffective this week. Theoretically, a high winning percentage is great, but I am still uncomfortable with betting every game. I will continue to look for strategies to eliminate games and maintain high winning percentages. For this reason, I will track the "bad" strategies in hopes that they will provide valuable insight to which games to bet and/or which to leave out.
In closing I would like to mention that I am going to start experimenting with NBA handicapping. I have started transporting the strategies, but have had little success with the spread bets. It seems that there is too much variance for my strategy to work with the NBA. Therefore, I am restricting my experiments with the NBA to over/under bets only. Specializing will hopefully allow me to be more successful.